Weekly Wrap: Strong US Data, WCK Tragedy, and Rate Cut Uncertainty

New weekly summary module, updated 1-2 times per month, focusing on US stock market hotspots and global macro events.

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III.This Week's Market Performance

IV.All three major indices closed higher on Friday

V.Dow +0.8%, Nasdaq +1.24%, S&P 500 +1.11%

For the week:

VI.Dow Jones fell 2.27% to 38,904

Nasdaq fell 0.8% to 16,248; S&P 500 fell 0.95% to 5,204

Leading sector: Energy +3.9%

VII.Lagging sector: Real Estate -3%

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X.Weekly Summary

Economic data:

• ISM and non-farm payroll data released this week came in surprisingly strong. See previous article for details:

US Economy Still Strong: What March's Hot PMI and Non-Farm Payroll Data Signal for Rate Cut Expectations

• 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.4%
• WTI crude closed at $86.73/barrel, Brent at $90.86
• Fed Chair Powell reiterated expectation for rate cuts this year, saying recent data hasn't changed the Fed's assessment
• Several Fed officials turned hawkish:

Waller: Rate cuts this year, but delayed or reduced

Bostic: One rate cut this year

Kashkari: Questioned rate cuts, raised possibility of hikes (Minneapolis Fed President, non-voting)

Bowman: If inflation stalls, Fed may need to hike (Governor, voting)

Logan: Too early to consider cuts, worried inflation stuck at 3%; suggested neutral rate may be higher, Fed may not need to cut much (Dallas Fed President, non-voting)

• Tesla delivery data was very poor, only 380,000 vehicles, well below expectations. Discussion on low-cost car vs. autonomous driving choices.

Geopolitics:

• Russian forces continue offensive toward Chasiv Yar; larger movements near Siversk front
• Seven WCK staff killed by IDF missile strike, including multiple international workers. Israeli Defense Minister responded by launching internal investigation; two officers reassigned, others reprimanded.

WCK stated: "Without systemic change, there will be more military failures, more apologies, and more grieving families." "We demand an independent commission to investigate the killing of our colleagues. The IDF cannot credibly investigate its own failures in Gaza."

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XIII.Key Macro Events Next Week

(US Eastern Time)

XIV.Monday: 1:00 PM – Chicago Fed's Goolsbee speaks

XV.Tuesday: 6:00 AM – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

Wednesday: 8:30 AM – US CPI data; 8:45 AM – Governor Bowman speaks; 12:45 PM – Chicago Fed's Goolsbee speaks; 2:00 PM – FOMC minutes; Monthly federal budget

Thursday: 8:30 AM – Initial jobless claims, PPI data; 8:45 AM – Governor Bowman speaks; 12:00 PM – Boston Fed's Collins speaks; 12:45 PM – Chicago Fed's Goolsbee speaks; 1:30 PM – Atlanta Fed's Bostic speaks

Friday: 10:00 AM – University of Michigan consumer sentiment; 2:30 PM – Atlanta Fed's Bostic speaks; 3:30 PM – San Francisco Fed's Daly speaks

(Beijing Time)

Monday:

XVI.Tuesday: M0, aggregate social financing, M1, M2, new RMB loans

Wednesday:

XVII.Thursday: CPI YoY, PPI YoY

XVIII.Friday: Trade data, exports and imports

Saturday:

XIX.Key focus: US and China CPI/PPI data, FOMC minutes, China financial data, initial jobless claims

Risk disclaimer: The views in this article are for reference only and do not represent investment advice. Market risk exists; invest with caution.