The election is over. Trump returns to the White House after four years, becoming the first U.S. president in 140 years to win a non-consecutive second term after losing a re-election bid. In this election, the Republican Party will simultaneously control all three branches of the U.S. separation of powers: the executive (presidency), the judiciary (Supreme Court), and the legislature (both chambers of Congress). Four years ago, no one imagined Trump would first win as a businessman. Over the past four years, the MAGA populist wave has pushed establishment Republicans out of the party's core. Now, Trump has been elected president again, making him the absolute leader of the GOP and the most powerful U.S. leader ever, holding all top core powers.
Presidential Election
In this election, Trump secured more than 270 electoral votes (out of 538 total). Beyond the Electoral College, Trump also won the popular vote—the first Republican to do so in 20 years. After the Electoral College votes, Trump will be sworn in as the 47th president on January 20, 2025.
Among the five states still counting, Trump leads in four.
In key swing states, except for the most critical Pennsylvania, Trump led Harris by wide margins in almost all swing states—far from the tight race polls suggested.
AP News Report
Fox News, a conservative-leaning outlet, was among the first to call the race for Trump.
Senate and House
Republicans won control of the Senate with 52 seats.
The House is also expected to flip.
Supreme Court
The Supreme Court now has six conservative justices and three liberal justices. Three of the conservative justices were appointed during Trump's first term.
Trump's Political Agenda
- Complete reversal of Democratic priorities: DEI, ESG, political correctness, transgender rights, LGBTQ+ issues, and other liberal trends.
- Tax cuts and reduced government spending: Extend the 2017 tax cuts.
- Tariffs: Possibly impose 20%-60% tariffs on China, or 300%/400% on certain goods, and a 10% tariff on all imports.
- Immigration: Tighten borders, though it's unclear how Trump will deliver on his promise to "deport all illegal immigrants."
Trump Trade
- Strong dollar, non-USD currencies falling broadly. Dollar index surged. U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose.
- Trump Media (DJT) spiked 24% at the open then pulled back sharply.
- Tesla rose 15% and kept climbing.
- TLT fell 3% that night, then recovered somewhat.
- The 10-year yield hit 4.4% before retreating to 4.3%.
The above was compiled on the evening of November 6 Beijing time, when the election result was finalized. It wasn't published immediately because the moves were sentiment-driven and didn't fully reflect rational pricing. The following was written after the Fed's rate decision.
The Fed cut rates by 25 bps, as expected. Is the economy good or bad? The non-farm payroll data shows huge divergence—why did Wall Street ignore this report?
The rate cut was unanimous. The statement removed the phrase "greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%," signaling stronger confidence in hitting the inflation target.
In the press conference, Powell said: "In the near term, the election will have no effect on the Fed. We don't guess, we don't speculate on future policy."
On concerns about Trump triggering a second inflation wave, the Fed's stance is unclear—it will depend on incoming economic data. The Fed will weigh all variables in future decisions.
On the neutral rate: if the labor market weakens significantly, the Fed may accelerate cuts. If it stays strong, as we approach neutral, the pace may slow. The Fed needs to see where neutral settles. If the labor market stabilizes for a while, the Fed may consider the current rate near neutral. If the neutral rate is revised higher, the room for cuts narrows, dampening rate-cut expectations.
On the CME, the probability of a 25 bps cut in December is around 70%.
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