跳到正文 · Skip to content
内容
关于与合作
订阅与会员
★ 查看会员权益
设置
主题色
版本 · 深色 / 减动搜索⌘K
草稿预览·这篇还没发布,不会出现在列表和 RSS 里。review 完后把 frontmatter 的 draft: true 改为 false 即可。

When Everything Rallies, Watch Out

The market is most dangerous not when it falls, but when everyone believes it won't.

2026.03.071 min原创

1. Rising Correlation Is a Signal

In a normal market, stocks across sectors and styles show differentiated performance. But when "everything rallies," it means a common driver (usually liquidity) is overwhelming individual fundamentals—a classic sign of overcrowded trading.

The flip side of abnormally high correlation: when the driver reverses, all assets fall together. Diversification offers the least protection at such times.

2. What to Do

This isn't a call to go to cash entirely—but to check: has the best-performing part of your portfolio exceeded its intended weight? If so, rebalance moderately to bring risk exposure back in line.

Also, raise cash levels now. Not to bottom-fish, but to preserve the freedom to avoid forced selling during any sudden downturn.

Minto
明投 Minto
投资分析 · 长期主义者
你读完了 · Colophon

When Everything Rallies, Watch Out

1
分钟
2026/03
期号
2026
年份
真正稀缺的,是一个不慌不忙的人。
明投 · MintoInvest Wisely
— From This Series
喜欢这篇?这类 市场复盘 的深度拆解会持续发到你邮箱。
无广告 · 随时退订
— Enjoyed the read?
如果这篇文章对你有用,把它分享给一个朋友,就是对我最好的支持。

口碑是独立创作者最稀缺的燃料。

— Discussion

说说你的想法

评论基于 GitHub Discussions(Giscus)。登录后即可留言、点赞、互相讨论。

评论还在准备中。

想说什么可以直接发我邮件,比在评论区更容易认真回复。

mingtaohuang617@gmail.com →
支持沉浸式阅读